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SEC Worries Shake Solana Confidence
As May 2025 came to an end, Solana (SOL) faced a sharp downturn, dropping by 11.45% in just a few days. This decline was triggered largely by regulatory uncertainty. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) raised concerns over the proposed launch of two new cryptocurrency ETFs—one involving Ethereum and the other, Solana.
These ETFs were expected to bring legitimacy and institutional inflows into the crypto space, but the SEC’s skepticism sent shockwaves through the market. Solana, being directly mentioned, felt the heat more than others. Traders responded with a swift sell-off, causing the SOL price to tumble. Despite the temporary blow, Solana hovered between $155 and $185 for 23 consecutive days, reflecting high investor indecision.
This period of price stagnation amid strong external pressures hints at increased volatility for June 2025, potentially setting the stage for either a recovery or a deeper correction.
On-Chain Metrics Show Mixed Signals
While the price of SOL struggled, on-chain data told a more nuanced story. One particularly positive trend is the consistent rise in new wallet addresses on the Solana network. According to data, new wallets have grown from 98.33 million in March to 111.01 million in April and further to 123.81 million in May. This steady increase in user adoption is typically a bullish sign, indicating a growing user base and long-term network strength.
However, despite the network expansion, market sentiment remains shaky. The Open Interest (OI)-weighted funding rate has turned negative, dropping to -0.0027%. This metric indicates that short sellers are becoming more aggressive, betting on further price declines. The shift in funding rates also underscores a notable dip in bullish conviction among traders and speculators.
Taken together, these mixed signals suggest that while the fundamentals may be improving, short-term market sentiment is bearish—setting the stage for potential price volatility in June.
SOL Price Retests $150 Support
Currently, the Solana price is testing a crucial support level around $150. Over the past 24 hours, SOL is down by more than 1%, continuing a trend of negative price action that has lasted three days. According to data from Binance, SOL has dropped 11% over the past week, although it still holds a modest +4.93% monthly return—showing how quickly sentiment can shift.
Technical indicators are not painting a rosy picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has plummeted to 41.66, edging close to the oversold territory. This drop points to increased selling pressure and weakening bullish momentum. Additionally, the average RSI line is trending downward, indicating that resistance is growing stronger and that buyers may struggle to regain control in the near term.
If the current trend continues and $150 fails to hold as support, Solana could quickly slide toward its next key level—$127, which was the low in April 2025.
Two Scenarios for June 2025
Looking forward, Solana stands at a pivotal point heading into June 2025. There are two likely paths the price could take, depending on broader market sentiment, regulatory developments, and investor behavior.
Bullish Scenario: Retest of $200 Possible
If Solana manages to maintain its support at $150 and gains renewed investor confidence, it could bounce back to its recent high of $177 from May 28. A return of positive sentiment, possibly spurred by favorable regulatory news or broader market recovery, could push SOL toward the $200 mark. This level has not been seen since February 2025 and would represent a major recovery milestone.
Additionally, continued growth in network activity and user adoption could serve as long-term bullish catalysts. If the negative funding rate reverses and more long positions are opened, momentum could quickly shift in favor of bulls.
Bearish Scenario: Drop to $127 Ahead
On the other hand, if the $150 support level fails amid rising selling pressure and liquidations, Solana could be in for a significant correction. The next major support lies at $127—the low recorded in April 2025. If bearish momentum accelerates, especially in response to more regulatory tightening or macroeconomic uncertainty, this level may come under threat.
A drop to $127 would mark a decline of nearly 30% from recent highs and could shake short-term investor confidence, even if the network fundamentals remain strong.
Final Thoughts on SOL’s Outlook
Solana’s price action in June 2025 will likely hinge on a few critical factors: regulatory clarity, market sentiment, and technical support levels. While on-chain growth is encouraging, current bearish sentiment and technical signals suggest increased caution is warranted in the short term.
For long-term believers, dips like these may present buying opportunities. But for short-term traders, keeping a close eye on the $150 support and monitoring RSI levels will be crucial.
As always in crypto, expect the unexpected—and watch for confirmation signals before making decisive moves. Whether Solana rebounds or plunges to $127, June 2025 is shaping up to be a make-or-break month for SOL.