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Bitcoin investors hoping for a massive capital rotation from traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver into crypto may be misreading the market signals, according to prominent crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen. While many Bitcoiners believe precious metals hitting new all-time highs is a bullish precursor for BTC, Cowen warns that the current macro cycle suggests a different outcome.
In a recent analysis, Cowen stated that Bitcoin is likely to continue bleeding against the stock market, challenging the popular narrative that a strong metals rally automatically leads to a crypto surge. His outlook highlights growing uncertainty in the digital asset market as macroeconomic forces shape investor behavior.
Gold and Silver Surge to Record Highs
Gold and silver have been on a historic rally, with gold reaching $5,608.33 and silver climbing to $121.64, according to Trading Economics. These gains reflect heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid macroeconomic uncertainty, falling US dollar strength, and geopolitical tensions.
Adding fuel to the bullish metals narrative, Citi recently predicted silver could reach $150 within three months, citing strong Chinese demand and a weakening US dollar at four-year lows. Such forecasts have intensified speculation that Bitcoin could soon follow metals in a major bullish rotation.
However, Cowen believes this expectation may be premature.
Rotation to Bitcoin May Not Happen Soon
According to Cowen, investors betting on an immediate shift from precious metals to Bitcoin may be chasing the wrong signal. He emphasized that Bitcoin’s downtrend relative to equities may persist longer than many holders expect, especially as macro conditions continue to favor traditional risk assets.
Cowen explained that while gold and silver often lead during periods of macro stress, Bitcoin behaves differently and tends to lag behind during certain phases of the market cycle. As stocks remain resilient, Bitcoin may struggle to outperform equities in the near term.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at around $82,859, down 7.78% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap. The decline comes amid weakening sentiment across the broader crypto market.
Crypto Market Sentiment in Extreme Fear
Investor sentiment remains fragile. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently posted an “Extreme Fear” score of 16, signaling significant caution among traders and investors. Historically, such low sentiment readings have often coincided with market bottoms—but timing the bottom remains notoriously difficult.
Extreme fear typically reflects uncertainty around macro conditions, regulatory pressures, liquidity concerns, and broader risk-off behavior across global markets. In this environment, capital tends to flow into safe-haven assets like gold and bonds rather than volatile cryptocurrencies.
Other Analysts See a Potential Turning Point
Despite Cowen’s bearish near-term outlook, other analysts believe Bitcoin could be approaching a key inflection point.
Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal suggested that the market may be nearing a phase where investors re-risk back into Bitcoin. He noted that Bitcoin bottoms historically lag gold’s relative strength by about 14 months, indicating that the current metals rally could still be a bullish precursor for BTC later in the cycle.
Hundal believes a Bitcoin bottom could form within the next 40 days, potentially triggering a rotation into crypto by February or March if historical patterns repeat. He emphasized that gold typically leads during macro stress, while Bitcoin follows once risk appetite returns.
“If that model isn’t broken, the tape should start to look less fragile by the end of the quarter,” Hundal explained.
Bitcoin Trading at a Discount to Gold
Further supporting the bullish long-term thesis, Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, stated that Bitcoin is trading at a steep discount relative to gold. He described such asymmetric setups as rare and suggested that Q1 2026 could become a major inflection point if capital flows shift back into crypto markets.
This divergence between gold and Bitcoin highlights the evolving role of digital assets in the macro landscape. While gold remains the traditional hedge during uncertainty, Bitcoin’s adoption as “digital gold” continues to develop, with institutional participation still maturing.
Macro Cycle and Bitcoin’s Relative Performance
The debate over Bitcoin versus stocks and gold ultimately comes down to where the market sits in the macro cycle. During risk-off phases, investors typically favor safe assets like gold and government bonds. As risk appetite returns, equities and cryptocurrencies tend to outperform.
Cowen’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin may continue underperforming stocks until the current cycle matures further. This aligns with historical data showing Bitcoin often lags equities during certain macro phases before entering explosive bull runs.
For investors, this underscores the importance of understanding macro trends rather than relying solely on historical crypto patterns.
What This Means for Bitcoin Investors
Bitcoin’s near-term outlook remains uncertain, with conflicting signals from analysts. While Cowen warns of continued underperformance against stocks, others believe the market is approaching a cyclical bottom that could set the stage for a major rally.
For long-term holders, periods of extreme fear and underperformance have historically provided accumulation opportunities. However, short-term traders should remain cautious, as macro headwinds and sentiment indicators suggest volatility could persist.
Ultimately, whether Bitcoin follows gold’s rally or continues bleeding against equities will depend on broader macro factors such as interest rates, dollar strength, liquidity conditions, and investor risk appetite.
As the cycle evolves, Q1 2026 could prove to be a critical turning point for Bitcoin, with the potential to redefine its relationship with both stocks and precious metals.