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Altcoins Still Losing Momentum
Despite Bitcoin surging past $110,000, the broader altcoin market remains in a sluggish phase. While many expected a classic altcoin season to follow Bitcoin’s post-halving rally, data shows otherwise.
According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Burrakesmeci, the 1-Year Cumulative Buy/Sell Quote Volume Difference for altcoins — excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum — has hit –$36 billion. This figure paints a stark picture: capital is still flowing out of altcoins.
This metric calculates the difference between buy and sell quotes on altcoin pairs across major exchanges, giving insight into trader sentiment. Historically, when the value flips to positive territory, it reflects increasing demand — often near the local market top. In contrast, the current extreme negative reading suggests that investors are cautious, choosing to stay on the sidelines rather than rotate into riskier assets.
How Altseason Usually Starts
A true altseason tends to follow a somewhat predictable path. First, Bitcoin surges, driven by factors like halving events, institutional interest, or macroeconomic shifts. As the BTC rally begins to plateau, investors typically start reallocating profits into altcoins to chase higher returns.
This rotation often begins with large-cap coins like Ethereum, before spreading into smaller sectors such as memecoins, AI tokens, DeFi, or Layer-2 projects. But that shift has yet to happen.
The Altcoin Season Index, a measure of market-wide altcoin performance, remains below 30 — far from the required 75 that traditionally marks a full-blown altseason. At the same time, Bitcoin dominance sits at a firm 64%, showing no signs of retreating.
Metrics Still Signal Pause
Let’s dig deeper into the numbers. The $36 billion negative flow indicates strong outflows from altcoin markets over the past year. That’s not a small dip — it’s a sign of persistent capital retreat. Notably, the same metric flipped positive in December 2024, preceding a local rally. But since then, it’s trended sharply downward.
This figure doesn’t just reflect trading activity — it suggests deep skepticism about the short-term potential of altcoins. Even with Ethereum (ETH) slightly outperforming Bitcoin (BTC) on a 90-day basis, risk appetite is clearly limited. The ETH/BTC ratio, now at 0.02405, is rising slowly, but still lags behind the levels historically seen during a proper altseason.
This sluggishness also hints that Ethereum hasn’t ignited enough momentum to pull the rest of the altcoin market with it. Without a clear Ethereum breakout, the rotation into altcoins remains muted.
Macro Forces Also Weigh In
Beyond crypto-specific indicators, macro conditions are playing a critical role in keeping altcoin season at bay. Central banks continue with quantitative tightening, and interest rates remain historically high. This restricts the liquidity available for speculative investments, especially in high-risk altcoins.
Many traders are watching for rate cuts, which could loosen capital and reignite risk-on sentiment. If Bitcoin dominance drops alongside favorable macro policy changes, analysts expect a delayed altseason could emerge by late 2025.
Still, others warn that without regulatory clarity or a standout performance from Ethereum, we might not see a proper altcoin cycle until 2026. That would mark one of the longest delays in rotation the crypto market has experienced post-halving.
Conclusion: Patience Still Required
The narrative of an imminent altcoin season looks increasingly weak in mid-2025. While Bitcoin’s strength remains undeniable, altcoins continue to suffer from weak demand, limited capital flow, and macroeconomic headwinds.
The $36 billion in negative quote volume is not just a number — it’s a signal from the market that confidence hasn’t returned. The lack of substantial volume inflows, tepid Ethereum signals, and an Altcoin Season Index stuck below 30 all point to a market that’s waiting — not rushing in.
Until there’s a clear reversal in capital flows, or a game-changing event like an Ethereum ETF approval, altcoin investors may need to stay patient. Timing the market is always a risk, but with data this stark, it’s safer to heed the cautionary signals than to bet early on a rally that hasn’t arrived.
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