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Market Shows Strength
Bitcoin’s recovery is accelerating as selling pressure has noticeably eased, with analysts pointing to improving macroeconomic conditions and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The world’s leading cryptocurrency briefly dipped to just above $82,000 on Friday, marking its lowest level since mid-April. Since then, Bitcoin has begun to climb higher, boosting investor confidence and signaling renewed bullish momentum across the crypto market.
Crypto market analysts are increasingly optimistic that this recovery could continue. According to Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards, the recent market dump across both tech stocks and digital assets was linked to shifting expectations around interest rate cuts.
“As the market reverts, expect it will carry Bitcoin somewhat higher,” he stated in an X post on Monday.
Selling Pressure Fades
Analysts at Swissblock noted that Bitcoin has taken a “first real step toward forming a bottom,” as key risk signals are beginning to drop sharply. Their Risk-Off Signal now indicates that selling pressure has eased significantly and that the worst phase of capitulation is likely behind us—at least for now.
However, they cautioned that a second selling wave often follows the first. This wave tends to be weaker, and if Bitcoin holds its previous lows, it could become one of the most reliable bottoming signals in the market. According to Swissblock, that second wave usually marks seller exhaustion and indicates a potential shift back to bullish momentum.
Critical Week Ahead
This week is shaping up to be crucial for Bitcoin’s price direction. Swissblock analysts emphasized the need for selling pressure to continue fading to confirm that Bitcoin has indeed found a temporary bottom. The charts currently reinforce this trend, with Bitcoin’s price rising to $87,118, suggesting early signs of recovery.
Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin dropped to $80,600 on Coinbase last Friday, its lowest price since mid-April. From its all-time high above $126,000 in early October, Bitcoin has now experienced a 36% correction—a level historically associated with potential bounce zones during bullish macro cycles.
Fed Rate Cut Hopes
A major catalyst for Bitcoin’s turnaround is the sharp shift in expectations around Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Just last week, the probability of a rate cut in December fell to around 30%. However, within days, that sentiment flipped dramatically, with odds now above 70%, according to Charles Edwards.
The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows 69.3% odds of a 0.25 basis point cut at the Federal Reserve’s December 10 meeting. Market analysts believe this reversal in expectations could provide a crucial tailwind for crypto assets.
X account Global Markets Investor summarized the shift perfectly:
“What a difference two days make in market expectations.”
Liquidity Boost Incoming
Another powerful driver could soon enter the market: liquidity expansion. Market analyst Sykodelic believes the Federal Reserve may announce a form of “reserves management” at the next meeting—essentially, a liquidity injection to stabilize financial conditions.
“The central bank has to inject liquidity at some point, otherwise they go bankrupt,” they said. “If you’re betting on a year-long bear market, you’re basically betting that the USA will let itself go broke.”
Historically, interest rate cuts and liquidity injections have benefited high-risk assets like Bitcoin. During previous phases of quantitative easing, Bitcoin experienced some of its strongest rallies, driven by abundant capital and risk-on investor sentiment.
Bitcoin’s Next Move
While short-term volatility may persist, market analysts agree that macroeconomic conditions are shifting in Bitcoin’s favor. With selling pressure fading, Fed rate cut odds rising, and liquidity potentially returning to the system, Bitcoin may be positioned for a trend reversal.
However, the upcoming weeks will be critical. A confirmed bottom structure—along with sustained buying momentum—could pave the way for a stronger rally into the end of the year.
As Swissblock highlighted, the second wave of selling typically marks seller exhaustion, and from there, bulls begin to regain control. If that plays out as expected, Bitcoin may be preparing for a significant upside move—with renewed market confidence and healthier fundamentals supporting growth.