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Standard Chartered Forecasts Massive Upside
Standard Chartered has made waves in the crypto world with its latest prediction: Bitcoin could climb to $135,000 by Q3 2025, and potentially surpass $200,000 by year-end. This bullish forecast comes as global investment sentiment around Bitcoin continues to evolve, driven largely by two major forces—spot ETF inflows and increasing corporate treasury interest.
Geoff Kendrick, the head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, shared the optimistic outlook in a report released Wednesday. He argued that Bitcoin’s historical price declines following halving cycles are no longer applicable, thanks to this new wave of institutional demand.
According to Kendrick:
“Thanks to increased investor flows, we believe BTC has moved beyond the previous dynamic whereby prices fell 18 months after a halving cycle.”
In essence, Standard Chartered believes that Bitcoin’s market mechanics are maturing, and that long-term accumulation by major funds and companies will help prevent cyclical declines previously observed in past halving cycles.
Halving Cycle No Longer Applies
Historically, Bitcoin halving events—where the reward for mining new blocks is cut in half—have been key milestones that impacted price action. In the past, the BTC price saw a strong rally after the halving, followed by a sharp decline about 18 months later.
This pattern held true in both the 2016 and 2020 halving cycles. However, Kendrick believes the 2024 halving will break that mold, primarily due to new market dynamics.
What’s different this time?
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Since their approval in January 2024, spot ETFs have injected billions into the market.
- Corporate Treasury Allocation: More companies are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, treating it as a long-term store of value.
- Global Acceptance: Institutional interest continues to rise, along with geopolitical adoption narratives.
“We expect prices to resume their uptrend, supported by continued strong ETF and Bitcoin treasury buying,” Kendrick wrote.
In his view, the “post-halving crash” scenario won’t play out in 2025 as it did in previous cycles, despite historical parallels.
ETFs and Treasuries Drive Momentum
The two key catalysts behind Standard Chartered’s forecast are strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing interest from corporate treasuries.
These are not just speculative bets, but long-term commitments from heavyweight investors. ETFs, especially those backed by traditional finance firms like BlackRock and Fidelity, offer institutional players easy and compliant access to Bitcoin exposure.
ETF inflows alone have crossed $4.8 billion in just 15 days, though there was a temporary setback with $342 million in outflows recorded on July 1, marking the first outflows since June 6.
Despite this short-term correction, Standard Chartered views this pullback as healthy and not indicative of a broader trend reversal. Rather, it points to a moment of profit-taking after an aggressive accumulation phase.
On the corporate side, more firms are expected to follow in the footsteps of companies like MicroStrategy, which continues to add Bitcoin to its treasury. In Kendrick’s view, this shift from speculative holding to institutional-grade asset allocation is a major market stabilizer.
What Could Disrupt This Outlook?
While bullish, Kendrick did caution that the road to $135,000 may not be entirely smooth. He acknowledged that Q3 and early Q4 could see volatility, in part due to market participants anticipating corrections akin to past halving cycles.
This “halving correction psychology” may temporarily spook some investors, especially those unfamiliar with the changing nature of the market. But if ETF inflows and treasury purchases maintain their momentum, such dips will likely be bought up quickly.
Standard Chartered also hinted that macro conditions, such as U.S. interest rates and regulatory shifts, could also play a role in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory in the latter half of 2025.
Still, the bank remains firm in its belief that Bitcoin’s structural support is now stronger than ever.
The Path to $200K by Year-End
Looking further ahead, Standard Chartered has gone beyond the Q3 $135K target. According to their projections, Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
This is not simply a moonshot prediction. It’s based on:
- ETF adoption spreading globally
- Sovereign-level adoption of Bitcoin
- Corporate treasuries allocating more reserves into BTC
- A possible shift in public perception from “risk asset” to “digital gold”
If these factors continue to develop in the coming months, Bitcoin’s role in the global financial system will only deepen, fueling more demand and less volatility.
Final Thoughts
Standard Chartered’s forecast signals a strong vote of confidence in Bitcoin’s future—from a major traditional banking institution, no less. Their view challenges the long-standing notion that Bitcoin will necessarily crash 18 months after each halving.
Instead, this time it’s different.
With ETFs unlocking mass adoption, and corporations rethinking how they store value, Bitcoin may be entering a new era of stability and growth.
While short-term volatility can’t be ruled out, the broader trend—according to Standard Chartered—is clear: Bitcoin is climbing higher, and the $135,000 target for Q3 2025 might just be the beginning.